It's Friday. "The party don't start 'til Pulse walks in."
THE HEALTH CARE CAMPAIGN CONUNDRUM – Whether you support or oppose it, health care reform is treacherous campaign territory. A series of polls from the Quinnipiac University Polling Center, testing voter opinion on lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the new law, underscore the difficulties of the issue for both Democratic and Republican candidates. Twenty-one states, mostly lead by Republican governors and attorney generals, have filed suits challenging in particular the mandate that people buy health insurance or pay a fine.
The Quinnipiac polls, conducted in three states across the past month, all find likely voters to have complex and contradictory views on these repeal lawsuits as well as health care reform itself. By a slight majority, likely voters tend to oppose the health care reform law. But they also tend to oppose the repeal lawsuits as a “bad idea” that would, for a sizeable portion of voters, make them “less likely” to support a given candidate. In short, voters simultaneously don’t want to health care reform but don’t want to challenge it either.
Candidates have no clear path forward on health care reform in the coming election cycle. Neither vigorous attacks nor defenses of the law are popular with voters. Lying low on the issue may seem the soundest strategy, but that’s unlikely to be an option on such a polarizing issue.
CONNECTING DATA POINTS – These on-the-ground polls bolster a finding, earlier this week, from conservative group Resurgent Republic: the “repeal and replace” strategy is largely unpopular outside the party.
QUESTION: How much will health care reform, and a candidate’s position, matter when voters pull the lever? With financial regulation and immigration taking control of the national conversation, are we overplaying the significance that health care reform will have six months from now?
Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Alan I. Abramowitz uses Gallup data to make a few educated guesses on the subject. Among his findings:
“Among both Democrats and Republicans, those who agreed with their party on health care were more enthusiastic about voting than those who disagreed with their party but Republicans who strongly opposed reform were a good deal more enthusiastic (78% were more enthusiastic than usual) than Democrats who strongly favored reform (63% were more enthusiastic than usual).”
“It could increase interest in the election and therefore voter turnout. So far this year most polls have found Republicans to be more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats and that was also the case in the Gallup survey. 71% of those supporting a generic Republican indicated that they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year compared with only 56% of those supporting a generic Democrat.”
“Among undecided voters, there is a fairly even split between those saying they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the law and those saying they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes the law. Based on these results, there appears to be little potential for this issue to produce a shift in voter preferences. The main effect of health care as an issue would probably be to reinforce voters’ partisan preferences.”
CANCER SOCIETY CRITICIZES U.S. PANEL FOR OVERSTATING RISKS – The New York Times’ Denise Grady reports: “A dire government report on cancer risks from chemicals and other hazards in the environment has drawn criticism from the American Cancer Society, which says government experts are overstating their case. The government’s 240-page report, published online Thursday by the President’s Cancer Panel, says the proportion of cancer cases caused by environmental exposures has been ‘grossly underestimated.’ It warns of ‘grievous harm’ from chemicals and other hazards, and cites ‘a growing body of evidence linking environmental exposures to cancer.’
“Dr. Michael Thun, an epidemiologist from the cancer society, said in an online statement that the report was ‘unbalanced by its implication that pollution is the major cause of cancer,’ and had presented an unproven theory — that environmentally caused cases are grossly underestimated — as if it were a fact.”
Source: http://feeds.politico.com/click.phdo?i=22d8bed028ecc05233ac7b8246c971c5
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